Performance of proxy predictors at the 10% surveillance threshold.

Model 1 predicted the fate of a cluster using the top two predictors in our best fit model. The two proxy models used data from two time points, when the cluster reached relative frequencies of 6% (t1) and 10% (t2). Model 2 considered the time elapsed between and the number of competing expanding clusters. Model 3 considered the relative fold change in the focal cluster between the two time points and the population-wide variance in fold change. Performance values are the median of five-fold cross-validation.