Data from: Social Norms and Fertility by Myong Park and Yi

We document three stylized facts on marriage and fertility patterns in East Asian societies: (i) their marriage rates are among the highest in the world, but their total fertility is the lowest; (ii) although they have the lowest total fertility, almost all married women have at least one child; and (iii) almost no single women have any children. As these societies have been influenced by Confucianism over millennia, marriage and fertility decisions are potentially shaped by two social norms: the unequal gender division of childcare and the stigma attached to out-of-wedlock births. We present a model incorporating the two social norms, and structurally estimate it using data from South Korea. We find that the social norm of unequal gender division of childcare plays a significant role in the low fertility rates, especially for highly educated women. However, the social stigma attached to out-of-wedlock births has modest effects on the childlessness rate for single women. Our results show that the tension between the persistent gender ideology and the rapid socioeconomic development is the main driving force behind the unique marriage and fertility patterns in East Asian societies.

本项研究对东亚社会中婚姻与生育模式的三个显著特征进行了阐述：（一）其婚姻率位居世界前列，而总生育率却处于最低水平；（二）尽管总生育率最低，但几乎所有已婚女性至少生育一个孩子；（三）几乎无单身女性生育。鉴于这些社会长期受到儒家思想的影响，婚姻与生育决策可能受到两种社会规范的塑造：不平等的育儿性别分工及非婚生子女所承受的耻辱。本研究提出一个融合两种社会规范的模型，并利用来自韩国的数据对其进行结构估计。研究发现，不平等的育儿性别分工规范在低生育率中扮演了显著角色，尤其是对于受过高等教育的人群。然而，非婚生子女所承受的社会耻辱对单身女性无子女率的影响则相对较小。我们的研究结果表明，持续存在的性别意识形态与快速的社会经济发展之间的张力，是东亚社会独特婚姻与生育模式背后的主要驱动力。