Excel file for RICE model as of April 26, 2010

The science of global warming has reached a consensus on the high likelihood of substantial warming over the coming century. Nations have taken but limited steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions since the first agreement at Kyoto in 1997, and little progress was made at the Copenhagen meeting in December 2009. The present study examines alternative outcomes for emissions, climate change, and damages under different policy scenarios. It uses an updated version of the RICE model (Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy). New projections suggest that substantial future warming will occur if no abatement policies are implemented. The model also calculates the path of carbon prices necessary to keep the increase in global mean temperature to 2 degrees C or less in an efficient manner. The carbon price for 2010 associated with that goal is estimated to be $59 per ton (at 2005 prices), compared with an effective global average price today of around $5 per ton. However, it is unlikely that the Copenhagen temperature goal will be attained even if countries meet their ambitious stated objectives under the Copenhagen Accord. This file is the program used to create the runs. The file is RICE_042510.xlsm

全球变暖的科学已就未来一个世纪内发生显著升温的高度可能性达成共识。自1997年京都议定书签订以来，各国在减少温室气体排放方面仅采取了有限的措施，2009年12月哥本哈根会议亦未取得显著进展。本研究旨在探讨在不同政策情景下，排放、气候变化以及损害的替代性结果。研究采用了RICE模型（区域综合气候与经济模型）的最新版本。新的预测表明，如不实施减排政策，未来将发生显著的升温。模型还计算了以有效方式将全球平均气温升高控制在2摄氏度或以下所需的碳价格路径。为实现这一目标，2010年的碳价格预计为每吨59美元（按2005年价格计算），而当前全球平均碳价格约为每吨5美元。然而，即使各国在哥本哈根协议下实现其宏伟的既定目标，也难以达到哥本哈根设定的温度目标。本文件是创建运行所用的程序文件。文件名为RICE_042510.xlsm。