Summary of model parameters for MSORD models 1–8.

Model descriptions follow Kendall and Bjorkland [7]. QAICc = sample size and overdispersion corrected Akaike Information Criterion based on c-hat = 1.037, ΔQAICc = difference between each model and the best-fit model 1, QAICc weights = weight of evidence in support of the model. Model parameters: S(TSM) = constant time-since-marking (TSM) annual survival probability; S(.) = constant annual survival probability; ψ(.) = constant transition probability from the nester to non-nester state and visa versa; ψ(.t) = constant transition probability from the nester to non-nester state, but time-specific transition probability from non-nester to nester state;pent(.t) = time-specific inter-seasonal but constant intra-seasonal probability of arrival; pent(.X10yr,t) = time-specific inter-seasonal but constant intra-seasonal arrival probability within 10-year epochs; φ(.TSM) = time-since-marking inter-seasonal but constant intra-seasonal probability of remaining; φ(.X10yr,TSM) = time-since-marking inter-seasonal but constant intra-seasonal probability of remaining within 10-year epochs; φ(.t) = constant intra-seasonal but time-specific inter-seasonal probability of remaining in the study area; p(.4,t) = time-specific inter-seasonal but constant intra-seasonal detection probabilities that differ within four epochs; and p(t,t) = time-specific intra-seasonal and inter-seasonal detection probabilities.