Climate-induced Citizen Noncompliance Undermines State Capacity in Africa

Climate change poses a critical threat to state capacity by undermining tax compliance, yet the pathways linking climate shocks to fiscal resilience remain poorly understood.<b> </b>Using geocoded public opinion survey data from 150,471 citizens across 38 African countries and high-resolution remote sensing data, we provide the first empirical evidence that weather extremes increase tax noncompliance by 2.9% to 5.2%, disproportionately affecting economically vulnerable populations. This effect arises from climate-induced declines in economic prospects, declining satisfaction and trust in state institutions, and worsening food and fuel insecurity, which reduce households’ ability and willingness to meet tax obligations. Projections estimate that weather extremes could cause annual tax revenue losses exceeding $3.14 billion across the continent, highlighting the fiscal risks posed by climate change. Our findings also show that climate adaptation measures — such as access to reliable water sources and climate-resilient infrastructure, can significantly mitigate these effects. These results underscore the importance of integrating climate adaptation into state-building efforts to safeguard fiscal resilience in developing countries.气候变化通过削弱税收遵从（tax compliance）对国家能力（state capacity）构成严峻威胁，但目前学界对气候冲击与财政韧性（fiscal resilience）之间的关联路径仍知之甚少。本研究使用覆盖38个非洲国家共150471名公民的地理编码民意调查数据，以及高分辨率遥感数据，首次提供实证证据表明：极端天气事件会使税收不遵从（tax noncompliance）率提升2.9%至5.2%，且对经济脆弱群体的影响尤为显著。该效应源于气候引发的经济前景下滑、民众对国家机构（state institutions）的满意度与信任度下降，以及日益严峻的粮食与燃料不安全问题，这些因素共同削弱了家庭履行纳税义务的能力与意愿。预测模型估算显示，极端天气事件可能导致整个非洲大陆年度税收收入损失超过31.4亿美元，凸显了气候变化所带来的财政风险。本研究同时发现，气候适应措施（climate adaptation measures）——例如获取可靠水源与建设气候韧性基础设施（climate-resilient infrastructure）——可显著缓解上述负面影响。上述研究结果凸显了将气候适应纳入国家建设进程的重要性，这有助于维护发展中国家的财政韧性。