Qui Bono? Foreign Military, Economic, Diplomatic Interventions, and the Termination of Civil Wars: An Integrative Approach

Foreign interventions are generally considered as game changers in civil wars. Yet the extant literature on this topic typically focuses on a single type of intervention, neglecting the effect of other intervention types deployed within the same conflict. Breaking with tradition, this article proposes a more extensive, multi-faceted bargaining model that integrates multiple types of interventions—military, economic, and diplomatic—that may be employed in a given conflict. The new framework analyzes how the interventions—either alone or in combination with others—shift the balance of power, often partly because interventions reveal previously private information regarding the true capacities of the warring parties. By including the asymmetrical aspects of civil wars in the framework, the article argues and finds support that although rebel-sided interventions usually produce their desired effect by enhancing the opposition’s military capacity, state- sided interventions tend to backfire and ultimately undermine the government.