Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Chinese Eco-Industrial Parks by Targeting Energy Infrastructure: A Vintage Stock Model

Mitigating
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China’s industrial
sector is crucial for addressing climate change. We developed a vintage
stock model to quantify the GHG mitigation potential and cost effectiveness
in Chinese eco-industrial parks by targeting energy infrastructure
with five key measures. The model, integrating energy efficiency assessments,
GHG emission accounting, cost-effectiveness analyses, and scenario
analyses, was applied to 548 units of energy infrastructure in 106
parks. The results indicate that two measures (shifting coal-fired
boilers to natural gas-fired boilers and replacing coal-fired units
with natural gas combined cycle units) present a substantial potential
to mitigate GHGs (42%–46%) compared with the baseline scenario.
The other three measures (installation of municipal solid waste-to-energy
units, replacement of small-capacity coal-fired units with large units,
and implementation of turbine retrofitting) present potential mitigation
values of 6.7%, 0.3%, and 2.1%, respectively. In most cases, substantial
economic benefits also can be achieved by GHG emission mitigation.
An uncertainty analysis showed that enhancing the annual working time
or serviceable lifetime levels could strengthen the GHG mitigation
potential at a lower cost for all of the measures.