Model comparison based on the log-likelihood and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC; smaller is better).

PANC denotes the HIV prevalence proportion among pregnant women obtained from surveillance at antenatal care (ANC) clinics. Other auxiliary predictors are: Formal = formal dwellings (%); DR = dependency ratio; SEQ = socio-economic quintile; MMR = maternal mortality rate; HFB = births in health-care facilities (%). Covariance structures (Cov) are independence (Ind) or simultaneously autoregressive (SAR).