Heat resilience - Met Office predictions - Summer nights above 20

Average number of nights where daily minimum temperature is greater than 20°C in summer (June, July August) for Bristol Medium Super Output Areas calculated for the time periods 1981-1999, 2021-2039 and 2061-2079 from UKCP Local climate projection data.Days above 30°C can cause impacts to the energy network as overhead powerlines become less efficient and also increased disruption to transport networks.UK Climate ProjectionsThe Climate maps are based on high-resolution UK Climate Projections (called UKCP Local). They have been generated using the Met Office's new climate model which works at a 2.2km resolution, on par with operational weather forecast models. The UKCP Local projections use a high-emission climate scenario called RCP 8.5. This represents a future where global greenhouse gas emissions grow beyond current policy commitments, leading to greater levels of global warming sooner rather than later. Further details on UKCP Local projections can be found in the UKCP Local (2.2km) Projections Factsheet (metoffice.gov.uk) and UKCP Science report (metoffice.gov.uk).The Climate maps show the mean or average of the 12 ‘ensemble’ members of UKCP Local. An ensemble is a group of climate simulations with each simulation slightly different to the other due to changing the model parameters. By producing more than one simulation, UKCP Local projections account for uncertainty in the model set-up.The range of days exceeding 30°C in summer for time periods has been calculated for the whole of Bristol.. The range is the second highest and second lowest ranked ensemble members. The values presented for each medium super output area should be viewed against this range for Bristol indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.LimitationsBristol’s climate data as presented in these maps, should be interpreted as an approximation. There will be many factors influencing the projected number of days exceeding specific temperature thresholds. These include natural variability within the climate and the fact that the climate model can’t represent some small-scale local climate processes.Further information on the caveats and limitations of UKCP18 can be found in this Met Office UKCP guidance document (metoffice.gov.uk).