Potential trajectories of old-growth Neotropical forest functional composition under climate change

Quantifying relationships between plant functional traits and abiotic gradients is valuable for evaluating potential responses of forest communities to climate change. However, the trajectories of change expected to occur in tropical forest functional characteristics as a function of future climate variation are largely unknown. We modeled community level trait values of Costa Rican rain forests as a function of current and future climate, and quantified potential changes in functional composition. We calculated per-plot community weighted mean (CWM) trait values for leaf area (LA), specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC), leaf nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) content, and wood basic specific gravity (WSG), for tree and palm species in 127 0.25 ha plots. We modeled the response of CWM traits to current temperature and precipitation gradients using generalized additive modeling. We then predicted and mapped CWM traits values under current and future climate, and quantifie...