Model prediction of the SPARTAC trial.

Nr and Vr are the density of CD4+ T cells and free virions at randomisation (when patients groups are randomly divided and the trial starts). tp is the time between the initial infection and the primary end point (when density of CD4+ T cells decreases to 350 cells/μl or the start of long-term ART [28]). The tp estimated from the model is the time when CD4+ T cells decreases to 350 cells/μl. The Materials and Methods section describes how tp is inferred from the data [28] in terms of days after infection. The model parameters calibrated from the trial data (by fitting the average Nr, Vr for all patients and tp for the standard care group) are Q0 = 566 cells/μl, S0 = 13 cells/μl, NM = 638 cells/μl, κ = 1.292165 /day and D = 28 days. The model predictions use the same Nr and Vr for all three patient groups, which are the average of all patients in the trial. The trial treatment is assumed to be 100% effective against cell-free HIV-1 spread. We estimate the tp for 12-week and 48-week treatment groups if the treatment is 50% (value in bold font) or 100% (value in normal font) effective against cell-to-cell spread of HIV-1.Model prediction of the SPARTAC trial.