PUBLIC EXPENDITURES AND TAX REVENUES IN BRAZIL: A PARAMETER SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT This article aims to measure fiscal multipliers for the Brazilian economy, considering the possible effects of economic activity shocks on central government fiscal revenues, based on a sensitivity analysis of parameters. The research was conducted with a structural vector autoregressive model with treatment of the problems of structural breakdown and identification of the structural model, which was addressed using the shock of economic activity on central government revenues as a reference for the parameter sensitivity analysis. The main results show that changes in the tax burden have important effects on the measurement of tax multipliers.