The Effect of PTAs on Energy Trade from Chinese & Exporters’ Perspectives

About the ProjectOur goal is to understand the context of China’s energy economy and underlying decisionmaking processes. This understanding will enable the collection of relevant and accurate data both to feed analysis and drive the interpretation of model outputs. The project aims to analyze and assess information to obtain policy relevant insights. Its focus is on investigating the global consequences of changes to energy markets within China and China’s energy policies. In line with KAPSARC’s overall objectives, the aim is to produce policy relevant insights that may assist actors outside China to understand the consequences of decisions taken by actors in China. Key PointsDuring periods of supply abundance that lead to lower prices, commodity exporters strive to secure their market share with major importing economies. This paper seeks to cast light on what drives an exporter’s share of Chinese imports of oil, gas and coal – and we find that the strategy behind achieving this goal need not rely on pricing policies alone. China has been promoting a trade agenda that seeks to strengthen economic ties in the Asia-Pacific region and has been extending negotiations aimed at developing relationships worldwide. The country is a major energy import powerhouse; its trade deals have significant impact on the international energy trade and global energy markets. We explore the role of energy in China’s preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and extend the trade gravity model to disaggregated trade flows, estimating the impact these agreements have on Chinese energy imports. We find that: Securing energy/resource imports is not the major driver of China’s PTA strategy. Other considerations include: access to significant or strategically important markets, complementary economic and trade structures and extending political influence. The impact of PTAs on trade patterns varies across product groups. Agreement elements may include tariff reduction, scope and other specific policy arrangements. From China’s perspective, reduced import tariff rates likely: Increase the import flows of coal, crude oil and oil products – but not gas – from a partner economy to China. Help an energy exporter increase its share in Chinese crude oil and oil product imports. Divert a partner’s exports of crude oil and oil products to China from competing importers. From an exporter’s perspective, the presence of an operational PTA with China likely: Increases the import flows of gas from a partner economy to China. Helps an energy exporter increase its share of Chinese imports of coal. Diverts a partner’s exports of coal and gas to China from other importers. Does not affect oil exports to China. The depth and scope of a PTA does not affect the patterns of Chinese energy imports.

关于本项目
我们的目标在于深入理解中国能源经济之背景及其决策过程之内在机制。此种理解将有助于收集相关且精确的数据，以支撑分析并推动模型输出的解读。本项目旨在分析并评估信息，以获得政策相关之洞见。其聚焦于探究中国能源市场变动之全球影响，以及中国能源政策。与KAPSARC总体目标相一致，本项目旨在产出政策相关之洞见，以助益中国之外之参与者理解中国决策者所采取决策之影响。
关键点
在供应过剩导致价格下降的时期，商品出口国力求通过主要进口经济体来稳固其市场份额。本文旨在揭示驱动出口国在中国石油、天然气和煤炭进口中所占比重之因素——我们发现，实现此目标之策略并非仅依赖于定价政策。中国一直致力于推动旨在加强亚太地区经济联系的贸易议程，并扩大旨在全球范围内发展关系的谈判。作为主要能源进口国，中国的贸易协议对国际能源贸易和全球能源市场具有显著影响。我们探讨了能源在中国优惠贸易安排（PTA）中的作用，并将贸易引力模型扩展至细分贸易流动，以估计这些协议对中国能源进口的影响。我们发现：确保能源/资源进口并非中国PTA策略之主要驱动力。其他考虑因素包括：进入重大或战略意义之市场、互补的经济与贸易结构以及拓展政治影响力。PTA对贸易模式之影响因产品类别而异。协议要素可能包括关税减免、范围以及其他具体政策安排。从中国视角来看，降低进口关税率可能：增加从伙伴经济体流向中国的煤炭、原油及石油产品进口流——但非天然气——；帮助能源出口国提高其在中国的原油及石油产品进口中所占份额；将伙伴国的原油及石油产品出口从竞争性进口国转向中国。从出口国视角来看，与中国存在运作中的PTA可能：增加从伙伴经济体流向中国的天然气进口流；帮助能源出口国提高其在中国的煤炭进口中所占份额；将伙伴国的煤炭和天然气出口从其他进口国转向中国；不影响对中国的石油出口。PTA之深度与范围不影响中国能源进口模式。