Utilising citizen science data to rapidly assess changing associations between wild birds and avian influenza outbreaks in poultry

High pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) is a rapidly evolving virus causing significant economic and environmental harm. Wild birds are a key reservoir of AIVs and an important source of viral incursions into many animal populations, including poultry. However, we lack thorough understanding of which species drive incursions and whether this changes over time. We explored associations between abundances of 152 avian species and cases of HPAI in poultry premises across Great Britain between October-2021 and January-2023. Spatial generalised additive models were used, with species abundance distributions sourced from eBird. Associations were investigated at the species-specific level and across species aggregations. During autumn/winter, associations were generally strongest with waterbirds such as ducks and geese; however, we also found significant associations in groups such as non-native gamebirds, and rapid change in species-specific associations over time. Our results demons..., , , # Utilising citizen science data to rapidly assess changing associations between wild birds and avian influenza outbreaks in poultry.

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.6hdr7sr8x](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.6hdr7sr8x)

## Description of the data and file structure

Manuscript_code.R

* Code to run all analyses and production of manuscript figures

model_coefs.xlsx

* Coefficients from species-specific generalised additive models.
* Each tab provides coefficients for a variable within the species-specific models. Tab 1 details the intercept coefficients, tab 2 details the beta coefficients for the species abundance variable, and tab 3 details the beta coefficients for the Total poultry stock variable.
* Each tab has the following columns:
* Estimate – model beta coefficient. Variables were scaled and cantered prior to model fitting. Prior to centring and scaling, species abundance and total poultry stock were integer counts.
* Std..Error – standard error of the beta coefficient.
* ...