Predictive Multivariate Linear Regression Analysis Guides Successful Catalytic Enantioselective Minisci Reactions of Diazines

The Minisci reaction is one of the most direct and versatile methods for forging new carbon–carbon bonds onto basic heteroarenes: a broad subset of compounds ubiquitous in medicinal chemistry. While many Minisci-type reactions result in new stereocenters, control of the absolute stereochemistry has proved challenging. An asymmetric variant was recently realized using chiral phosphoric acid catalysis, although in that study the substrates were limited to quinolines and pyridines. Mechanistic uncertainties and nonobvious enantioselectivity trends made the task of extending the reaction to important new substrate classes challenging and time-intensive. Herein, we describe an approach to address this problem through rigorous analysis of the reaction landscape guided by a carefully designed reaction data set and facilitated through multivariate linear regression (MLR) analysis. These techniques permitted the development of mechanistically informative correlations providing the basis to transfer enantioselectivity outcomes to new reaction components, ultimately predicting pyrimidines to be particularly amenable to the protocol. The predictions of enantioselectivity outcomes for these valuable, pharmaceutically relevant motifs were remarkably accurate in most cases and resulted in a comprehensive exploration of scope, significantly expanding the utility and versatility of this methodology. This successful outcome is a powerful demonstration of the benefits of utilizing MLR analysis as a predictive platform for effective and efficient reaction scope exploration across substrate classes.