Modeling Residential Electricity Demand in the GCC

About the ProjectThis project attempts to model econometrically residential electricity demand for the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Using the Structural Time Series Model, the impact of the drivers of residential electricity demand – prices, income, population, weather and other exogenous factors – are considered in order to provide information on their relative importance. This project is part of a larger body of KAPSARC research analyzing energy demand, energy efficiency, and rebound.Key PointsOur research suggests that consumers’ response to a change in the real electricity price in the GCC region has been very limited during the past three decades. The low price response coupled with the low administered electricity price regime, together with rapidly increasing income and prosperity, has resulted in residential electricity demand in the GCC region increasing rapidly over the past three decades. Beyond a certain level of harsh climatic conditions, variations in local temperatures have a minor impact on residential electricity demand in the GCC region since temperatures have traditionally been extreme. Underlying electricity use due to evolving consumer behavior — holding all other drivers constant — has been increasing in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman. However, for Kuwait, it reached a level in the early 1990s that has been maintained thereafter. This suggests a sizeable reduction in consumption could be achieved through energy awareness campaigns.

关于本项目本项研究旨在通过计量经济学方法模拟六个海湾合作委员会国家——巴林、科威特、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋——的住宅电力需求。采用结构时间序列模型，本项目考虑了住宅电力需求驱动因素——价格、收入、人口、气候及其他外生因素——的影响，以提供关于其相对重要性的信息。本项研究是KAPSARC能源需求、能源效率和反弹效应分析研究系列的一部分。主要观点我们的研究指出，在过去三十年间，GCC地区消费者对实际电力价格变化的反应极为有限。低价格响应与低行政电力价格制度相结合，以及收入和繁荣的迅速增长，导致GCC地区住宅电力需求在过去三十年内急剧增长。在恶劣气候条件达到一定程度之后，局部温度的变化对GCC地区住宅电力需求的影响微乎其微，因为传统上温度一直极端。在沙特阿拉伯、巴林和阿曼，由于消费者行为的演变——在保持所有其他驱动因素不变的情况下——基本电力消耗一直在增加。然而，对于科威特来说，其在20世纪90年代初达到的水平在此之后得以维持。这表明，通过能源意识宣传活动，可以实现显著的消费减少。