6-week forecast for selected Elbe level, water level

Since July 2022, the BfG has published a 6-week probability-based forecast of the water level for entertainment-relevant levels at the Elbe River. The 6-week forecast is provided for the Elbe-Pegel Dresden, Barby and Neu Darchau analogous to the deterministic low and medium water forecast via ELWIS. An update of the 6-week forecast takes place twice a week (Tuesdays and Fridays), each late morning. The 6-week forecast is based on current readings of the levels in the Elbe catchment area and the information from over 1000 weather stations. The forecast is calculated on the basis of the ENS extended ensemble forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMW/ECMWF). Based on this extensive real-time data, the BfG uses a hydrological model to determine an ensemble of water level forecasts over the next 6 weeks. On this basis, probability distributions of weekly average values for the trend forecast are determined in combination with statistical methods at the above-mentioned Elbe levels. This prediction is presented as box plots. Further explanations can be found at https://www.bafg.de/DE/08_Ref/M2/04_Vorhersagen/6wRheinElbe/6w_node.html. The file name of the boxplot quantile corresponds to the following schema: <river>_<level name>_6weeks_water level_QuansBox.csv. In addition, a 4-class forecast is published, which shows whether lower or higher outflows are predicted for the coming weeks compared to the long-term average. The file name of the boundaries and probabilities of the cake diagrams corresponds to the following schema: <river>_<level name>_6weeks_water level_Pie.csv. The master data of the prediction level (e.g. coordinates) can be accessed via PEGELONLINE https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/.