Winds of change: An analysis of recent changes in the South Australian electricity market

Over the past decade, the South Australian electricity market has undergone a dramatic change in supply mix. Prior to 2005, energy generation needs were predominantly sourced from gas and brown coal power stations. Since then, over 1500 MW of wind capacity and 680 MW of rooftop solar has been installed. At the same time, 770 MW of brown coal capacity has exited the market.These developments have substantially reduced the greenhouse gas emissions from South Australian electrical power generation. Recent steep increases, especially in the winter of 2016, has seen record high prices set, in what some have called the South Australian “energy crisis”. Recent media attention has focused on the relationship between the high level of penetration of renewable energy and the energy crisis. Much of the reporting has been framed in ideological terms - renewables are either ‘good’ or ‘bad’ - with little reference to quantitative analysis of the dynamics of the wholesale electricity market or movements in associated markets such as gas.This report explores the evolving dynamics in the electricity market in South Australia and how it is impacting wholesale prices. In particular, the report focuses on the growth in renewable energy generation, the impact of a changing gas market and market power concentration and competition issues.

在过去十年间，南澳大利亚电力市场在供应结构方面经历了显著变革。在2005年之前，能源生产需求主要依赖天然气和褐煤发电站。自那时起，已安装超过1500兆瓦的风力发电能力和680兆瓦的屋顶太阳能。与此同时，770兆瓦的褐煤发电能力已退出市场。这些变化显著降低了南澳大利亚电力生产过程中的温室气体排放。特别是2016年冬季的急剧增长，创下历史最高价格记录，这一现象被一些人称为南澳大利亚的“能源危机”。近期媒体关注的焦点在于可再生能源高度渗透与能源危机之间的关系。大部分报道都以意识形态为框架——可再生能源要么被视为‘有益’，要么被视为‘有害’，而鲜少提及对批发电力市场动态或相关市场如天然气市场变化的定量分析。本报告旨在探讨南澳大利亚电力市场的演变动态及其对批发价格的影响。特别是，报告聚焦于可再生能源发电的增长、天然气市场变化的影响以及市场力量集中和竞争问题。