Administrative Units

Intra-state water conflicts have increased substantially over the past few decades particularly in developing regions, and partly attributed to water scarcity. However, empirical studies linking water scarcity and violent conflicts are sparse, while existing quantitative studies have used mostly climate variables (precipitation and temperature) to understand this link. Most studies that have used climate variables concluded that they were not strong predictors of water conflicts. The aim of this study was to identify water scarcity hotspots and to understand the links between water scarcity and violent conflicts across the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin (LCB) over the period 2000-2021. To achieve this, we combine outputs from a global hydrological model and demographic data to develop six water scarcity metrics. The developed metrics show varying levels of water scarcity across the study region. The Falkenmark index across all capital cities (Ouagadougou-Burkina Faso, Ndjamena-Chad, Bamako-Mali, and Niamey-Niger), and Maradi-Niger and Jigawa & Kano states in Nigeria was less than 100 m3/capital/year, indicating acute water scarcity in those areas. Findings further indicated that green water scarcity (GWS) and the Falkenmark index were closely linked with water conflicts compared to the other metrics. Our findings suggest that water conflicts cannot be explained by hydroclimatic factors alone without incorporating other socioeconomic variables like demographic information. Results from this study may be used by stakeholders to tackle endemic water scarcity and to predict and mitigate water conflicts in the region.