History matters more when explaining genetic diversity within the context of the core-periphery hypothesis

The core–periphery hypothesis (CPH) predicts that populations located at the periphery of a species' range should have lower levels of genetic variation than those at the centre of the range. However, most of the research on the CPH focuses on geographic distance and not on ecological distance, or uses categorical definitions of core and periphery to explain the distribution of genetic diversity. We use current climate data and historical climate data from the last glacial maxima to develop quantitative estimates of contemporary and historical ecological suitability using ecological niche models. We analysed genetic diversity using 12 polymorphic microsatellites to estimate changes in heterozygosity, allelic richness and population differentiation in 31 populations of the wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus) spanning the species’ entire eastern clade (33o to 45o latitude) from Alabama, USA, to Nova Scotia, Canada. Our data support predictions based on the CPH. Populations showed significan...