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Fed Implied Market Prices and Risk Premia

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NBER2022-07-01 更新2025-01-04 收录
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We introduce FDIF, a measure of Fed communication surprise based on the text of FOMC statements. FDIF measures the difference between text-implied and actual values of key market variables. Positive FDIF of countercyclical variables (e.g., credit spreads) is associated with negative macroeconomic

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2022-07-01
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