Historical world mapping and current distribution in Peru of Cinchona spp.: Contribution to restoration and conservation strategies

Peru is megadiverse in neotropical flora, and it hosts an important cinchona tree (Cinchona spp.) that is currently in danger of extinction. This research generated georeferenced global historical maps of Cinchona spp. and then determined climate-appropriate sites according to a prediction model to establish priority areas for their conservation and restoration. Four maps were obtained, one for each centenary, from 1737 to the present, with 10,860 occurrences of Cinchona. In the modeling with MaxEnt, 5.56% (71,482 km2) and 17.67% (227,261 km2) of Peru’s land area had high (>0.6) and moderate probabilities (0.4-0.6), respectively, of supporting Cinchona. Only 27.44% (37,363.51 km2) and 11.99% (16,325.23 km2) of the areas with moderate and high potential for distribution, respectively, were covered by protected natural areas. Likewise, 64.95% (51149.00 km2) and 35.04% (27596.00 km2) of the moderate- and high-probability lands, respectively, correspond to degraded areas and are therefore considered a priority for restoration using Cinchona spp. The findings can spur a rethinking of the decision-making of the National Plan of Action for Reforestation with Species of the Genus Cinchona and other plans/tools for cinchona conservation.