Temperature Climate Projections from LOCA2 Downscaling

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This image service provides access to downscaled climate projections for 27 threshold values of temperature for the contiguous United States for 3 SSP climate scenarios from 1950-2100. These services are intended to support analysis of climate exposure for custom geographies and time horizons. Sixteen downscaled global circulation models (GCMs) were chosen to be included in a weighted ensemble, optimized for the contiguous United States. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in Understanding CRIS Data. Time Ranges Pixel values for each variable were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, a modeled history runs from 1950 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series. These annual increments support deriving a temporal average, such as a decadal or thirty-year period centered on a specific year. These time steps should not be used to make predictions about conditions for a specific year, especially at a pixel-level. Climate Scenarios Climate models use estimates of future greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to predict overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are presented here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5. The 2-, 3-, or 5- represents the socioeconomic growth model. The 4.5, 7.0, or 8.5 number indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP2-4.5 aligns closest with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement for no greater than 2oC average global warming. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, depicting a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Variable Definitions See the variable list and definitions here. All units of measure are Imperial. Additional Services Three versions of the gridded climate projections are available from CRIS: LOCA2 Ensemble: a statistically downscaled 6-km resolution model. LOCA2 has SSP2-4.5, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 STAR-ESDM Ensemble: a statistically downscaled 4-km resolution model. STAR-ESDM has SSP2-4.5 and 5-8.5 NCA5 Blended Ensemble: a merging of LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM ensembles at a 6-km resolution, as was done for the 5th National Climate Assessment (2023). NCA Blended Ensemble has SSP2-4.5 and 5-8.5 Using the Imagery Layer The ArcGIS Tiled Imagery Service has a multidimensional structure -- a data cube with variable, SSP, and time dimensions. Methods for accessing the different dimensions will depend on the software/client being used. For more details, please see the CRIS Developer’s Hub along with this instructional StoryMap. To run analysis, first use the multidimensional tools Aggregate or Subset in ArcGIS Pro to copy the necessary data locally. Data Export Data export is enabled on the services if using an ArcGIS client. NetCDF or Zarr files are also available from the NOAA Open Data Distribution system on Amazon Web Services.气候韧性信息系统（Climate Resilience Information System，CRIS）可为气候服务开发者提供数据与工具。本影像服务可访问美国本土27个温度阈值的降尺度气候预测数据，涵盖1950年至2100年的3种共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways，SSP）气候情景，旨在支持针对自定义地理区域与时间跨度的气候暴露度分析。 研究选取了16个经过降尺度处理的全球环流模型（Global Circulation Models，GCMs），构建针对美国本土优化的加权集合模型。关于集合模型选取与加权方法的更多细节，可查阅《Understanding CRIS Data》文档。 ### 时间范围 各变量的像素值于2005年至2100年按年度计算，此外还包含1950年至2005年的模拟历史数据。模拟历史数据与未来预测数据已合并为单一时间序列。此类年度增量可用于推导时间平均值，例如以特定年份为中心的十年期或三十年周期平均值。需注意，这些时间步长不应被用于针对特定年份（尤其是像素级）的气候状况预测。 ### 气候情景 气候模型通过预估未来温室气体浓度与人类活动来预测整体气候变化，这类差异化预估情景被称为共享社会经济路径（SSPs）。本次提供3种SSP情景：2-4.5、3-7.0与5-8.5。其中前缀数字2、3、5代表社会经济增长模式，后缀4.5、7.0、8.5则代表2100年时对应温室气体浓度情景的辐射强迫量（单位：瓦每平方米，辐射强迫越高，全球变暖幅度越大）。 目前无法确定哪种情景最符合未来实际发展，但SSP2-4.5与《巴黎协定》COP26达成的全球平均升温不超过2℃的国际目标最为契合；基于当前排放趋势，SSP3-7.0或为最贴近现实的情景；而SSP5-8.5则作为警示性情景，描绘了若不采取温室气体减排措施将出现的最坏场景。 ### 变量定义 详见此处的变量列表与说明。所有度量单位均采用英制单位。 ### 附加服务 CRIS提供三款格点气候预测产品： 1. LOCA2集合模型：经统计降尺度处理的6公里分辨率模型，支持SSP2-4.5、3-7.0与5-8.5三种情景； 2. STAR-ESDM集合模型：经统计降尺度处理的4公里分辨率模型，仅支持SSP2-4.5与5-8.5两种情景； 3. NCA5混合集合模型：将LOCA2与STAR-ESDM集合模型以6公里分辨率融合而成，对应2023年发布的第五次美国国家气候评估（NCA5），仅支持SSP2-4.5与5-8.5两种情景。 ### 影像图层使用方法 ArcGIS切片影像服务采用多维结构——即包含变量、SSP情景与时间维度的数据立方体。访问不同维度的方法取决于所使用的软件或客户端。更多细节请参阅CRIS开发者中心与本教学型StoryMap。如需开展分析，请先使用ArcGIS Pro中的多维工具（聚合或子集工具）将所需数据本地复制。 ### 数据导出 若使用ArcGIS客户端，服务支持数据导出。此外，NetCDF或Zarr格式文件可从亚马逊云科技（Amazon Web Services）上的NOAA开放数据分发系统获取。