Assessing the suitability and dynamics of three medicinal Sambucus species in China under current and future climate scenarios

Abstract Aim: Climate change is rapidly altering the global ecological environment, causing habitat degradation and altering the distribution patterns of numerous plant species. Sambucus species have been wildly recognized for their pharmacological value, but their distribution patterns in China remain poorly understood. We studied the potential suitability and dynamics of three Sambucus species (Sambucus adnata, Sambucus javanica, and Sambucus williamsii) in China under climate change. Location: China. Methods: We used the random forest model to predict the potential suitable distributions of three Sambucus species in China under current and future climate scenarios (including SSP245-2050, SSP585-2050, SSP245-2090 and SSP585-2090 scenarios). Moreover, we identified key factors affecting their potential distributions. Results: Our results showed that S. adnata and S. javanica were primarily influenced by temperature seasonality and mean diurnal range, respectively, while S. williamsii was mainly affected by precipitation of the wettest month. Currently, S. williamsii was primarily distributed in north and central south China (9.57 × 105 km2), S. javanica was found in the south and east regions (6.41×105 km2), and S. adnata was mainly distributed in the southwest (1.99×105 km2). Under future climate change scenarios, S. adnata may shift to higher latitudes, while S. javanica may shift to lower latitudes. However, potential suitable areas for S. williamsii may contract under certain scenarios in 2050 and 2090, with an expansion under SSP585 in 2090. Main conclusions: Our study highlights the influence of climatic factors on the potential distribution of Sambucus species and provides theoretical guidance for the conservation, cultivation, and utilization of Sambucus medicinal plant resources under climate change.