Pliocene-Pleistocene ecological niche evolution shapes the phylogeography of a Mediterranean plant group

Estimating species ability to adapt to environmental changes is crucial to understand their past and future response to climate change. The Mediterranean basin has experienced remarkable climatic changes since the Miocene, which have greatly influenced the evolution of the Mediterranean flora. Here we examine the evolutionary history and biogeographic patterns of two sedge sister species (Carex, Cyperaceae) restricted to the western Mediterranean basin, but with Pliocene fossil record in central Europe. In particular, we estimated the evolution of climatic niches through time and its influence in lineage differentiation. We carried out a dated phylogenetic-phylogeographic study based on seven DNA regions (nDNA and ptDNA) and fingerprinting data (AFLPs), and modelled ecological niches and species distributions for the Pliocene, Pleistocene, and present. Phylogenetic and divergence time analyses revealed that both species form a monophyletic lineage originated in the late Pliocene-early P...