Market Fluctuations in OECD Countries, 1919-1980

The project falls within the province often referred to as 'new political economics', as it includes political series and explanatory as well as explained variables in economic models explicitly. On the one hand, such political series as a) political popularity indexes, b) election results, c) government composition d) time interval until next election, etc. are used as explanatory variables in political reaction functions. On the other hand, economic variables are used to explain the fluctuations of the political variables mentioned. The main emphasis of the project is on the economic aspects. As the project includes data from 20 OECD countries, it is, in principle, possible to distinguish between internal (domestic) politico-economic reactions and external influences. These distinctions will, primarily, be made by means of a 'correlation index', the design of which will be improved, and which measures 'the international element' in internal time series