经济增长目标对长三角城市绿色全要素生产率的影响——基于国土空间结构的机制研究

[Objective] Achieving synergy between stable economic growth and urban green transition constitutes the practical foundation for sustainable development. From the perspective of territorial spatial structure, revealing the impact of economic growth target management of a proactive government on urban green development can provide scientific reference for policymakers in formulating green development policies. [Methods] This study analyzed the mechanisms of economic growth targets, territorial spatial structure, and urban green total factor productivity. Using the SBM-Malmquist-Luenberger model, it measured urban green total factor productivity based on panel data from cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2005 to 2022. A fixed effects model was employed to identify the impact of economic growth targets on urban green total factor productivity and its underlying transmission mechanism. [Results] (1) Economic growth targets exerted a significant negative impact on urban green total factor productivity. Specifically, a 1-percentage-point increase in economic growth targets led to a 0.00751 decrease in urban green total factor productivity. (2) The mediating effect analysis showed that economic growth targets drove the polycentric evolution of territorial spatial structure, which served as an important mechanism for inhibiting improvements in urban green total factor productivity. However, a monocentric spatial structure had a more significant positive impact on urban green total factor productivity in large cities. (3) The moderating effect tests revealed that marketization had a significant positive impact on the relationship between economic growth targets and urban green total factor productivity. In addition, economic growth targets and provincial spatial structure exhibited a substitution relationship in affecting urban green total factor productivity. [Conclusion] Optimizing the territorial spatial strategy in local government economic management to improve the efficiency of spatial resource allocation is an important pathway for promoting urban sustainable development while ensuring stable economic growth.