The sensitivity of EC-Earth3 decadal predictions to the choice of volcanic forcing dataset: Insights for the next major eruption.

Scripts used in the manuscript entitled 'The sensitivity of EC-Earth3 decadal predictions to the choice of volcanic forcing dataset: Insights for the next major eruption.'

Summary: Large volcanic eruptions are unpredictable and can have significant climatic impacts. If one occurs, operational decadal forecasts will become invalid and must be rerun including the volcanic forcing. In this study, the volcanic forcings from two simple models are compared with those of CMIP6 for the recent major eruptions. By analyzing EC-Earth3 retrospective predictions, we assess the climate response and show that both simple models are viable for forecasting post-eruption radiative impacts.