The rate test of speciation: estimating the likelihood of non-allopatric speciation from reproductive isolation rates in Drosophila

Among the most debated subjects in speciation is the question of its mode. Although allopatric (geographical) speciation is assumed the null model, the importance of parapatric and sympatric speciation is extremely difficult to assess and remains controversial. Here I develop a novel approach to distinguish these modes of speciation by studying the evolution of reproductive isolation (RI) among taxa. I focus on the Drosophila genus, for which measures of RI are known. First, I incorporate RI into age-range correlations. Plots show that almost all cases of weak RI are between allopatric taxa whereas sympatric taxa have strong RI. This either implies that most reproductive isolation (RI) was initiated in allopatry or that RI evolves too rapidly in sympatry to be captured at incipient stages. To distinguish between these explanations, I develop a new “rate test of speciation” that estimates the likelihood of non-allopatric speciation given the distribution of RI rates in allopatry versus s...