A dynamic supply-demand chain estimation model for material-energy-carbon flow nexus and upstream-midstream-downstream EV industry circular economy in China

Global warming and deteriorated environment necessitate the electrification in transportation sector with widespread adoptions of electric vehicles (EVs) for energy flexibility and resilience provisions. However, due to complexities in dynamic performance predictions and challenges in accurate number quantifications from the national-wide scale, material-energy-carbon flows of both current and future EV stocks with rapid expansions are unclear, especially for intrinsic essence and coupling relationships of materials, energy demands, and carbon emissions. In this research, both national and provincial EV stocks have been predicted from 2020 to 2060 for 31 provinces in mainland China. An energy-based dynamic EV fleets model is thereafter established to quantify the dynamic material-energy-information-carbon flows and associated lifecycle carbon emissions across lifecycle manufacture-operation-reuse-recycle stages. Upstream-midstream-downstream lifecycle circular economy of the dynamic EV fleet has been proposed to guide sustainable development instead of malignant competition for EV industry in China.