Adding ecological and evolutionary processes to restoration biodiversity offset models using neutral theory

Aim: Biodiversity offsets are being implemented or planned across all continents and biogeographical realms. Due to their popularity, new offset projects have developed faster than empirical evidence of their ecological effectiveness, so policy has been informed by quantitative models. However, these models have yet to incorporate ecological and evolutionary processes, which vary globally. Here we use the unified neutral theory of biodiversity to integrate speciation and dispersal into models of restoration biodiversity offsets. Location: A simulated one-dimensional circular landscape. Methods: We designed a simulation framework based on neutral theory that allowed us to compare restoration biodiversity offsets under various scenarios of speciation, dispersal and offset implementation: no offsets, passive restoration and translocation. This approach allowed us to evaluate time-series of multiple metrics of biodiversity (richness, evenness and community similarity) at different spa...