Replication Package for Medium-Term Fiscal Frameworks and Forecasting Accuracy: A Case Study of GDP Bias in a Small Open Economy

OverviewThe analysis in this study relies on the forecasts made by the multiannual macroeconomic frameworks made between 2002 and 2022 by the peruvian Ministry of Economy and Finance, and the GDP growth rates registered by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP). The folder labeled "Reproducibility Package" contains four directories:1.1_input: This directory contains the raw dataset of the GDP growths (2002-2024) extracted from the statistics webpage of the BCRP. And a manually constructed dataset that contains the forecasts made by each MMM made between 2002 and 2022.2.2_code: This directory contains all the do-files that replicate the results, as well as the master do-file labeled "0_Master_Do_file".3.3_temp: The final datasets are stored in this directory upon completion of the raw data processing.4.4_output: This directory contains two folders 1_tables and 2_figures that will store the final Tables and Figures generated throughout the codes, respectively.InstructionsRun the do-file "0_Master_Do_file". It is only necessary to change the location of the folder "Reproducibility Package" in line 9 of the master do-file. This path will be coded into a global labeled "directory". No further changes are necessary as the rest of the paths rely on said global.Check the directory 4_Output. All the results will be stored there.NotesThe do-files will export tables and figures with names that match their numbering in the paper (e.g., Table2.tex, Figure3.png), ensuring a direct correspondence between the results and the generated files.