Model for Garcia et al. "Harnessing the resource budget model to integrate alternate bearing and agroecosystem resilience."

Excel file with the parameterized resource budget model used for a modeling exercise integrating crop alternate bearing and environmental shocks. Modeled scenarios are figures can be found on individual sheets. Details in manuscript text (in prep) Study abstract: "Climate stress to food systems has spurred international efforts to support agroecosystem resilience to secure farmer livelihoods and agricultural production in the face of environmental disturbances. Given the complex feedbacks between farm, farmer, and the broader landscape, agroecosystem resilience relies on an integrated understanding of crop plant responses and farmer decision-making in response to shocks. This integration is especially important, yet underdeveloped, in perennial crop systems that exhibit synchronous alternate bearing, a pattern of reproduction fluctuating between high and low years. As a first step toward filling this gap, we apply the logic of the resource budget model, an ecological theory developed to describe the mechanisms of synchronous masting in forest trees, to alternate-bearing crop systems to demonstrate how consideration of alternate bearing influences agroecosystem resilience inference. Through an exploration of a parameterized resource budget model, we illustrate (a) how an environmental shock could induce synchrony across a previously asynchronous farm, thereby resulting in farm income fluctuations, and (b) how the impact of a shock depends on its timing relative to resource gain and depletion. While persistent stressors and shocks are treated separately in the resilience literature, the model exploration suggests that stressors can become shocks and vice-versa. We discuss the implications of alternative scenarios for farmer livelihoods and propose a method for incorporating a consideration of alternate bearing into existing agroecosystem resilience frameworks. We conclude by highlighting remaining gaps to advance the theoretical and empirical integration of alternate bearing and agroecosystem resilience."