Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Assateague Island National Seashore (ASIS) To Sea-Level Rise

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map relative vulnerability of
the coast to future sea-level rise within Assateague Island National Seashore
(ASIS) in Maryland and Virginia. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their
physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology,
regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change
rates, mean tidal range and mean wave height. Rankings for each variable were
combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the
park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level
rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's
susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing
environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure
of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI
provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by
scientists and park managers. Assateague Island consists of stable and washover
dominated portions of barrier beach backed by wetland and marsh. The areas
within Assateague that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are
those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of
shoreline change.

[Summary provided by the USGS.]