A mechanistic and empirically-supported lightning risk model for forest trees

Tree death due to lightning influences tropical forest carbon cycling and tree community dynamics.  However, the distribution of lightning damage among trees in forests remains poorly understood. 
We developed models to predict direct and secondary lightning damage to trees based on tree size, crown exposure, and local forest structure.  We parameterized these models using data on the locations of lightning strikes and censuses of tree damage in strike zones, combined with drone-based maps of tree crowns and censuses of all trees within a 50-ha forest dynamics plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. 
The likelihood of a direct strike to a tree increased with larger exposed crown area and higher relative canopy position (emergent > canopy >>> subcanopy), whereas the likelihood of secondary lightning damage increased with tree diameter and proximity to neighboring trees.  The predicted frequency of lightning damage in this mature forest was greater for tree species with ...