Reproductive losses due to climate change-induced earlier flowering are not the primary threat to plant population viability in a perennial herb

1. Despite a global footprint of shifts in flowering phenology in response to climate change, the reproductive consequences of these shifts are poorly understood. Furthermore, it is unknown whether altered flowering times affect plant population viability.
2. We examine whether climate change-induced earlier flowering has consequences for population persistence by incorporating reproductive losses from frost damage (a risk of early flowering) in population models of a subalpine sunflower (Helianthella quinquenervis). Using long-term demographic data for three populations that span the species’ elevation range (8–15 years, depending on the population), we first examine how snowmelt date affects plant vital rates. To verify vital rate responses to snowmelt date experimentally, we manipulate snowmelt date with a snow removal experiment at one population. Finally, we construct stochastic population projection models and Life Table Response Experiments for each population.
3. We find that ...