Validation of Statistical Models for Estimating Hospitalization Associated with Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

BackgroundReliable estimates of disease burden associated with respiratory viruses are keys to deployment of preventive strategies such as vaccination and resource allocation. Such estimates are particularly needed in tropical and subtropical regions where some methods commonly used in temperate regions are not applicable. While a number of alternative approaches to assess the influenza associated disease burden have been recently reported, none of these models have been validated with virologically confirmed data. Even fewer methods have been developed for other common respiratory viruses such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza and adenovirus. Methods and FindingsWe had recently conducted a prospective population-based study of virologically confirmed hospitalization for acute respiratory illnesses in persons ConclusionThe Poisson regression model generally produced satisfactory estimates in calculating the disease burden of respiratory viruses in a subtropical region such as Hong Kong.