Target trajectory tracking and extrapolation based on INT-VSMM algorithm

In order to address the issue of the traditional variable structure multiple model (VSMM) algorithm's lengthy computation time and difficulty meeting real-time constraints, we developed the intent variable structure multiple model (INT-VSMM) algorithm. This algorithm uses the target state and flight intent data collected by automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) as the model’s priori data, combining it with the VSMM theoretical framework. The motion pattern of the target in the flight phase of the flight path is decomposed, and a complete set of motion models is established. According to the principle of directed graph switching, a model set switching method is designed, which is mainly based on "hard" switching and supplemented by "soft" switching. The INT-VSMM algorithm is used to track the trajectory of the target aircraft, and short-term trajectory extrapolation is performed based on the target state estimation. According to the simulation results, the INT-VSMM algorithm outperforms the compared current approaches in terms of target tracking performance and computing time. Additionally, the extrapolated trajectory has a lower short-term inaccuracy, which can satisfy conflict detection requirements.