Can novel pest outbreaks drive ecosystem transitions in northern-boreal birch forest?

1. The boreal biome exhibits distinct alternative ecosystem states with high and low levels of tree-cover. Insect outbreaks facilitated by climate warming could potentially drive transitions from high to low tree-cover states. We investigated whether two key premises for such outbreak-induced transitions – critical thresholds (tipping points) and positive feedbacks that could maintain alternative states – are present in the northern-boreal mountain birch forest of Fennoscandia. Here, climate warming has promoted range expansions of defoliating geometrid moths, resulting in novel, severe multispecies outbreaks, most recently during 2002-2010. 2. We conducted regional-scale field surveys of forest damage and recovery in 280 mountain birch stands in a northeast Norway immediately after the outbreak (2010) and six years later (2016). Satellite-derived time series of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) provided an index of stand defoliation during the outbreak period. 3. The pr...