Vulnerability to climate changes of tropical forests across Africa

Aim: Global climate projections identify tropical regions as hotspots of climate change during the 21st century. The few ground data in tropical Africa confirm significant warming and drying over the last decades, but how plant communities will tolerate these new climate conditions remain vastly uncertain. In this study, we assess the climatic vulnerability of tropical moist forests across Africa.
Location: Tropical Africa.
Methods: We mapped climate change exposure across the tropical moist forest biome, focusing on mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and climatological water deficit (CWD) using climate projections for 2085 from five regional models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Using occurrence records for 3,536 tree and shrub species, we estimated species’ climatic limits and safety margins, then averaged these margins at the community level. Finally, we combined exposure and safety margins to assess species- and community-level risk by 2085.
Results: Under RCP..., , , # Vulnerability to climate changes of tropical forests across Africa

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.7h44j105d](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.7h44j105d)

## R_code_final.zip

This repository contains species occurrence data, spatial layers, and R scripts used to reproduce the main results of the article: **Vulnerability to climate change of tropical forests across Africa**.

### **climatic_data/**

Climate layers (baseline and projections under RCP4.5 / RCP8.5):

* **CWD** (*Climatic Water Deficit*) – in **mm**
* **MAP** (*Mean Annual Precipitation*) – in **mm**
* **MAT** (*Mean Annual Temperature*) – in **°C**\
Also includes **exposure layers** for each variable (files prefixed with `expo_`, e.g. `expo_mat_rcp45.tif` for MAT under RCP4.5).

### communities_grid/

Polygons/pixels representing forest communities:

* **communities**: community boundaries (polygons/pixels)
* **forest_communities**: communities including species occurrences

### floristic_data/

Tree and shrub occurrences...,