Detailed epidemiological analysis as a strategy for evaluating the actual behavior of tuberculosis in an apparently low-incidence region

Tuberculosis control in developing regions with apparent low incidence, like the low-income Mexican state of Michoacán, with mean annual incidence rates below 10/100,000 inhabitants, requires knowledge of the actual behavior of the disease. This can be determined using an epidemiological profile at sub-regional level, allowing disclosure of the clinical and social factors that may be hampering efforts to control tuberculosis. In this work, a detailed epidemiological profile was outlined using data of all new monthly cases registered in the National System of Epidemiological Surveillance Database for Michoacán municipalities from 2000 to 2012. Cases were grouped by gender and age, and sociodemographic data were obtained both from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography and from the United Nations Development Programme. Correlations were calculated by Chi-square, Mann-Whitney <i>U</i>, and Kruskal-Wallis <i>H</i> tests. We observed no statistically significant differences between notification rates for the years 2000, 2005 and 2010 (χ² = 0.222, <i>p</i> = 0.895). The percentage of cases is similar between all age groups older than 15, while some regions had low notification rates but high proportions of pediatric cases. Higher proportions of cases of extrapulmonary tuberculosis were observed in municipalities in northern Michoacán. No correlation was found between municipal Human Development Index values and municipal notification rates. Michoacán is undergoing an epidemiological transition with three regions having different epidemiological profiles and particular needs for effective prevention and containment of tuberculosis. Our work shows the importance of the spatial scale of epidemiological profiles for determining specific regional needs of surveillance and containment.