Predicting spatial patterns of Sindbis virus (SINV) infection risk in Finland using vector, host and environmental data

Pogosta disease is a mosquito-borne infection, caused by the Sindbis virus (SINV) with epidemics of febrile rash and arthritis in Northern Europe and South Africa. The virus is maintained in a transmission cycle between birds and mosquitoes. Resident grouse and migratory birds play a significant role as amplifying hosts and various mosquito species, including Aedes cinereus, Culex pipiens, Cx. torrentium and Culiseta morsitans are documented vectors. As specific treatments are not available for SINV infections and joint symptoms may persist, the public health burden is considerable in endemic areas. To predict the environmental and ecological suitability for SINV infections in Finland, we have applied a suite of geospatial and statistical modelling techniques to disease occurrence data. Using an ensemble approach, we first produced environmental suitability maps for potential SINV vectors in Finland. These suitability maps were then combined with host species and environmental data to i...