Data from: "Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts"

This data package contains data that were used to support conclusions drawn in “Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts”, by Conlisk et al. 2018. Experimental data collected at field sites within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA were used to formulate models packaged within “Model_archive” in the zipped folder “Conlisk_etal_GCB2018_model_archive20201202.zip”. “Model_archive” contains four comma-separated values (.csv) files used to create Figures 4 and 6 in the published journal, and five folders that contain population model files. These files can be opened with either a text-editor software, or Microsoft Excel. Models are stored as text files (.txt), and .pch, .sch, and .fch files can also be opened as text files using any simple text-editor software. However, please note that all the aforementioned files are specific to the RAMAS’ population modeling software suite, and you will need the software in order to be able to run the models. Analyses for this publication utilized Metapop. Experimental seedling and microclimate data are available in files “PICOseedlings20160408rev20210127” and “Climate_Table_d0_v20160607EEC_rev20210803”, respectively. Both files are available in .csv and .xlsx formats, and zipped in their respective folders. Data files with the same name are identical; file formats are provided for accessibility. “PICOseedlings…” contain lodgepole pine seedling data that were used for analysis and model parameterization, while “Climate_Table...” files contain delta values presented in Table 1 of the publication. The respective files can be opened using any simple text-editor software, and Microsoft Excel. “StatsPICO06072016rev12212020.R” is an R script file containing code used for statistical analyses reported in the final manuscript; R version 3.3.3 was used. The file can be opened by R, RStudio, and simple text-editor software. Some calculations were not used in the publication, and are indicated in the file. As above, “gcb13840-sup-0001-supinfo” is archived here in two forms: Microsoft Word (.docx) and PDF. The file contents are identical, and different file formats are provided for greater flexibility in file access. The .docx file can be opened by Microsoft Word, and the PDF can be opened by Adobe Acrobat Reader, or any application compatible with PDF files. Geospatial data delineating the three study sites are also included in this archive: .kml files can be opened by Google Earth or Google Maps, and shapefiles (.shp) can be opened by geospatial information systems applications compatible with shapefiles, such as ESRI’s ArcGIS suite, and QGIS. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. Here we present results from a common garden climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low-elevation provenance had greater recruitment to their third year (by 323%) than seeds from a high-elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range, and across climate manipulations. Heating reduced recruitment (by 49%) to the third year of both low- and high-elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering alleviated some of the negative effects of heating (108% increase in watered plots). Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long-term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid post-fire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low-elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. Our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species’ range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.