Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Effective September 27, 2023, this dataset will no longer be updated. Similar data are accessible from wonder.cdc.gov.

Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers. This visualization provides weekly data on excess deaths by jurisdiction of occurrence. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected.

Estimates of excess deaths can be calculated in a variety of ways, and will vary depending on the methodology and assumptions about how many deaths are expected to occur. Estimates of excess deaths presented in this webpage were calculated using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a set of expected counts, and the upper bound of the 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) of these expected counts is used as a threshold to estimate excess deaths. Observed counts are compared to these upper bound estimates to determine whether a significant increase in deaths has occurred. Provisional counts are weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Only about 60% of deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, and there is considerable variation by jurisdiction. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes.

自2023年9月27日起，本数据集将不再更新。类似数据可通过wonder.cdc.gov获取。

超额死亡估计能够提供有关可能与COVID-19相关的死亡率负担的信息，这一信息超越了直接归因于COVID-19的死亡人数。超额死亡通常被定义为观察到的死亡人数与预期死亡人数之间的差异。本可视化图表提供了按发生地划分的超额死亡每周数据。近几周内的死亡计数与历史趋势相比较，以确定死亡人数是否显著高于预期。

超额死亡估计的计算方法多种多样，具体取决于方法和关于预期发生多少死亡的假设。本网页上呈现的超额死亡估计是使用Farrington监测算法（1）计算得出的。对于每个辖区，使用一个模型生成一组预期计数，并使用这些预期计数的95%置信区间（95% CI）的上限作为估计超额死亡的阈值。观察到的计数与这些上限估计值进行比较，以确定是否发生了死亡人数的显著增加。临时计数经过加权，以考虑近期周内可能存在的报告不足。然而，最近一周的数据仍可能不完整。大约只有60%的死亡在死亡日期后的10天内被报告，且各辖区之间存在相当大的差异。关于方法、加权、数据和局限性的更多详细信息，请参阅技术注释。