Will the World Achieve Net Zero by 2050? The Challenge of Meeting Emissions Reduction Targets for less than 2oC warming in a Global Energy and Trade Model

Using a unique and large-dimensional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) economic model for energy and international trade, we calculated the needed change in the energy mix and fall in carbon emissions to meet a minimum Paris Agreement target and path (PTP) of less than 2oC warming. Covering 30 countries/regions and 31 commodity sectors, the model projects the PTP annual time steps to 2100 in terms of emissions reduction and the shift in energy mix, allowing for changes in energy intensity, renewables growth, and rising carbon prices. From 2026 to 2050, model results show carbon emissions must decrease by at least 5.8% globally, per year, on average, and coal consumption must fall continuously, complemented by significant increases in renewable energy. We find that annual global carbon emissions must decline by almost 53% in 2035 and 80% in 2050 to meet the PTP path by 2100. Coal consumption must fall between 85–99% by 2050 among the key emitters (China, the USA, and India), complemented by a continuous transition to renewables. For Net-Zero Emissions Targets (NZET), carbon sequestration from reforestation and land-use change is also essential. Model results indicate that a global NZET outcome, even with assumed carbon sequestration, no accelerated global warming, relative to current trends, and highly unlikely assumptions on reductions in future carbon emissions, does not occur before 2058, at the earliest. The potential benefit of achieving NZET, given only very limited heat-stress damage functions, is at least 10 times greater than the estimated damages from climate change.