Posterior probabilities for the seven demographic models shown in Fig 2.

Probabilities obtained through the logarithmic method (with 95% confidence intervals in brackets) for the seven scenarios inferred from DIY-ABC analysis. For each model three parasitism levels were considered where 10% indicates that 10% of the hominin population have lice with 10 lice per head, 30% and 50% indicate that 30% and 50% of the hominin population have 20 and 50 lice per head, respectively. Generational time was set to 18 days. For each comparison, the selected scenario (bold entry in shaded cell) was the one with the highest probability value. Confidence in scenario choice, shown under probability values, was evaluated by estimating the type I error rate from 1000 randomly constructed simulated data sets, for Models 5 and 7, respectively.