This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-fre

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抵押贷款违约风险

宏观经济预警

BackgroundWhere the data come fromThe Mortgage Performance Trends data come from the NMDB, a joint project we’ve undertaken with the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). For more information, visit

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宏观经济预警

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宏观经济预警数据库宏观行业公用指标基本信息,包含：记录唯一标识、记录创建日期、记录通讯到用户端日期、是否节点、指标ID、指标名称或节点名称、父层节点、显示顺序等信息

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货币政策分析

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This paper analyzes the contributions of monetary and fiscal policy to postwar economic recoveries. We find that the Federal Reserve typically responds to downturns with prompt and large reductions in

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Probability of a recession in the U.S. 2021-2026 forecast to 2027

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