Temperature-mediated variation in selection on offspring size: a multi-cohort field study

Offspring size is a key life history trait that often covaries negatively with temperature. Most studies focus on how temperature alters selection on offspring size during early life history stages such as embryos or larvae. The degree to which temperature alters the relationship between offspring size and post-metamorphic performance remains unclear as field studies across multiple temperature regimes are rare.

I deployed over 6000 individuals of known offspring size, into the field across 28 cohorts spanning 4 years for the model marine invertebrate, Bugula neritina and monitored their survival, growth and reproduction.

Offspring size closely tracked the local environmental temperature across cohorts. This offspring size-temperature covariance appeared to be adaptive, at least from the perspective of mothers. When temperatures were warmer, the relationship between offspring size and performance was weak; when temperatures were cooler, the relationship was strongly positive.

Estimates of selection based on maternal fitness differed from those based on offspring fitness, suggesting temperature-mediated parent-offspring conflict over offspring provisioning exists. I also found evidence for temporal autocorrelation in temperature and selection on offspring size.

That temperature affects the relationship between offspring size and post-metamorphic performance further complicates the challenge in understanding the ubiquitous covariance between offspring size and temperature.