Current and projected future risks of freshwater fish invasions in China

Biological invasions are a primary threat to global biodiversity, supporting mounting calls for the development of early-warning systems to manage existing and emerging invaders. Here, we evaluated the geographical pattern of invasion risks of currently established and potentially emerging nonnative freshwater fishes in China by jointly considering the threats of introduction and establishment under climate change. Introduction threats were estimated according to proxies of human activities and propagule pressure for two primary pathways (aquaculture or ornamental). Establishment threats for 51 current and 64 potential invaders (based on whether having established or not self-sustaining populations) were assessed using an ensemble of species distribution models under current (1960-1990) and future [2041-2060 (2050s) and 2061-2080 (2070s)] climate scenarios. Geographical patterns of invasion risk were then assessed by overlaying the threats of introduction and establishment for each spec...