Water level change indicators for the European coast from 1977 to 2100 derived from climate projections (Deprecated 10-05-2024)

The dataset presents extreme-value, return period, and percentile indicators for coastal sea levels in a European-wide domain. The indicators are computed from tidal dynamics, storm surge and sea level rise data based upon past observational data and future climate projections. This dataset provides an understanding of the European coastal hydrodynamics under the impact of climate change. It provides added value for various coastal sectors and studies such as port, shipping, and coastal management.
To compute these indicators, the Deltares Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM) version 3.0 is used together with regional climate forcing and sea level rise initial conditions. The regional climate forcing employed is the HIRHAM5 model from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), a member of the EURO-CORDEX climate model ensemble, which is downscaled from the global climate model EC-EARTH. By using a regional climate model and a high-resolution forcing field, GTSM is able to produce a more consistent and high quality dataset. In order to assess the impact of climate change, the GTSM model is run for three different climate scenarios: the present climate (labelled 'historical'), and two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios that correspond to an optimistic emission scenario where emissions start declining beyond 2040 (RCP4.5) and a pessimistic scenario where emissions continue to rise throughout the century often called the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). Given that the projections of these climate scenarios are based on a single combination of the regional and global climate models, users of these data should take in consideration that there is an inevitable underestimation of the uncertainty associated with this dataset. In addition to the climate scenarios, a reanalysis dataset is computed by forcing GTSM with ERA5 reanalysis. This provides recent historical water-levels that can be used to look at specific (extreme) events in the past.
This dataset was produced on behalf of the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

该数据集呈现了欧洲范围内海岸海平面的极端值、重现期和百分位数指标。这些指标通过潮汐动力学、风暴潮和海平面上升数据计算得出，数据来源于历史观测数据以及未来的气候预测。本数据集有助于理解气候变化对欧洲海岸水动力的影响，并为港口、航运和海岸管理等各个海岸行业的研究提供了额外的价值。在计算这些指标时，采用了Deltares全球潮汐和风暴潮模型（GTSM）版本3.0，并结合区域气候强迫和海平面上升初始条件。所采用的区域气候强迫模型为来自丹麦气象研究所（DMI）的HIRHAM5模型，该模型是EURO-CORDEX气候模型集合的一员，由全球气候模型EC-EARTH缩放而来。通过运用区域气候模型和高分辨率强迫场，GTSM能够生成更为一致且高质量的数据库。为了评估气候变化的影响，GTSM针对三种不同的气候情景进行了模拟：当前气候（标记为'历史'）、一种乐观排放情景（RCP4.5，其中排放从2040年开始下降）以及一种悲观情景（RCP8.5，排放在整个世纪内持续上升，通常被称为常规情景）。鉴于这些气候情景的预测基于区域和全球气候模型的单一组合，数据使用者应考虑到，与该数据集相关的不可规避的不确定性估计不足。除了气候情景之外，通过将ERA5再分析数据强迫GTSM，还计算了一个再分析数据集。这提供了最近的历史水位数据，可用于研究过去特定（极端）事件。本数据集由哥白尼气候变化服务局委托制作。